This page contains input data sources and output projections for the Sub-regional Pupil Projections. The input data sources provided on this page are the school numbers data from the school census, at school-level, Local Authority level, and Subregion level (ITL Level 2). The births data used for these projections can be found here. The output projections are at Subregion, Region, and England level. They provide ten-year projections from the most recent academic year of available School Census data, and cover National Curriculum Years from Reception up to Year 11. The main variables of the dataset are explained below. itl22cd & itl22nm: The geography names and codes. Most geographical areas in the datasets are ITL Level 2 Subregions, but the dataset also contains ITL Level 1 Regions and England in total. acd_year & year: The academic year in question in yyyy/yyyy format, and a single numeric year variable corresponding to the first year in the academic year. school_stage, nc_year, nc_year_number: nc_year is the National Curriculum Year from Reception to Year 11, and nc_year_number is a numeric variable with 0 corresponding to Reception, 1 corresponding to Year 1, etc. school_stage is whether the NC year is Primary or Secondary. mean_projection, upper_pi, lower_pi: These are the central forecast for the quantity in question, the upper 95% prediction interval, and the lower 95% prediction interval. This dataset is new and experimental, and in the short-term the exact figures published may be subject to minor changes as we continue to make revisions.
Last year's set of projections. This file contains projected pupil headcount for the next ten years, 2024/2025 to 2033/2034, at ITL Level 2 Subregion, ITL Level 1 Region, and England in total. It is disaggregated by National Curriculum Year and also provides past pupil numbers back to 2011/2012.
Methodology overview for Subregional Pupil Projections.pdf
This file contains projected pupil headcount for the next ten years, 2025/2026 to 2034/2035, at ITL Level 2 Subregion, ITL Level 1 Region, and England in total. It is disaggregated by National Curriculum Year and also provides past pupil numbers back to 2011/2012.
This file contains past data on pupil headcount, from 2011/2012 to 2024/2025.